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Posts with tag "ai"

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16 posts in total

The Shared Ancestor Problem

Two series on this blog solved the same puzzle. Neither knew the other existed. Both landed on one quiet rule: a check is only as honest as the mistake it cannot inherit. This post finally says that rule out loud. It comes in two flavors, one that bends under pressure and one that never does, plus a third case nobody ordered: a process with nothing wrong with it that still needs a babysitter, because of where its inputs came from. Post 5 of The Portable Mind.

Optimization and the Ceiling No Retry Can Raise

Ask one agent whether to keep funding a failing project and it usually says no. Put a small crowd of them in a room, agreeing with each other in a circle, and the answer flips to yes almost every time. This post is about knowing when to stop, why stopping on purpose is not the same as giving up, and why a crowd can talk itself out of the one instinct any of its members had alone. It also closes the series' running case, and puts an honest price on what all this trust-but-verify machinery actually costs. Post 4 of The Portable Mind.

Awareness and the Proof a Reasoner Cannot Write About Itself

Confidence is not evidence. A system can be completely wrong and completely sure of it at the same moment, because the part that feels sure and the part that would actually know better were never talking to each other. This post asks a reasoner to grade its own homework, and proves, carefully and a little reluctantly, that a certain honest kind of reasoner logically cannot. Post 3 of The Portable Mind.

Sufficient Abstraction and the Cost of Asking the Wrong Question Twice

A summary that was perfect yesterday can be perfectly wrong today, and nothing about the summary itself has to change for that to happen. The world moved. The old answer just kept insisting it was still the right one. This post is about that particular stubbornness, and its quieter cousin: believing the evidence that agrees with you a little more than the evidence that doesn't. Post 2 of The Portable Mind.

Noticing and the Cost of Not Knowing Enough

Ask a system to price a job before it has looked at the job, and watch it guess wrong with total confidence. That is not a personality flaw. It is arithmetic: nobody can spend variety they have not noticed yet, whether the nobody is a person or a model. This post opens a series about five ways thinking fails, for reasons that were always going to be reasons, not accidents anyone can tune away. Opening The Portable Mind.

The Iteration Trap

One more pass. That's the entire logic of a repair loop: whatever failed, better context and another attempt will eventually fix it. For most failures, that logic works — which is exactly what makes it a trap for the failures it doesn't. A recent complexity-theoretic result proves a specific class of task cannot be solved or verified within a bounded forward pass, no matter how many passes are chained together. A retry budget spent chasing that class buys nothing back — not a partial refund, nothing. Closing out Theorems Out of Warranty.

The Boolean Fallacy

A single word — passed — sounds like a verdict. It's actually doing the work of several different claims at once: checked and confirmed true, checked and confirmed false, and never checked at all because no method existed to check it, quietly rounded up to a pass anyway. Treating that boolean as if it always means the same thing is the boolean fallacy, and Rice's theorem gives the honest reason no execution-based check can fully cure it. Still inside Theorems Out of Warranty.

The Familiarity Bias

A judge should catch what a writer misses — that's the whole point of a second opinion. But if the judge finds an argument convincing mainly because it sounds like something the judge itself would write, the second opinion isn't independent, it's a compliment. Auditors from different adapter families converged on the same verdict for a proposal neither of them actually executed — full agreement, and not one shred of independent confirmation in it. Continuing Theorems Out of Warranty.

The Independence Illusion

More voters should mean more truth — that's the promise behind the jury theorem, Byzantine fault tolerance, and the scalability law alike. All three need the voters to disagree, when they're wrong, for genuinely different reasons. Stochastic agents pulled from overlapping training data don't fail that way: they agree, confidently, for the same reason, and a headcount can't tell independent judgment from an echo. Opening Theorems Out of Warranty.

One Equation Governs CPU Caches, Human Teams, and AI Agent Systems

Eight agents complete a benchmark worse than four, at 2x the token cost. The equation that predicts this was written in 1993 for parallel databases — and it governs CPU caches, engineering teams, and AI swarms with identical math. This post proves it at all three layers, then hands you the instrument: given your measured alpha, kappa, and role error weights, compute the topology before you spawn the first agent.

The Stochastic Tax — AI Doesn't Escape the Frontier — It Just Navigates It Differently

AI expands the achievable region on new axes — accuracy, explainability, privacy — and automates navigation along them. It does not escape the frontier. Compression moves along the accuracy/latency trade-off; it does not dissolve it. A multi-objective RL navigator learns to find Pareto-optimal operating points; it does not create them. The stochastic tax prices what learning costs: fidelity gap between model and explanation, exploration budget spent acquiring policy knowledge, privacy budget that degrades accuracy under formal data-use constraints. All three stack on top of the physics and logical taxes already owed.

Why Cold Start Caps Growth Before Users Return

New users arrive with zero history. Algorithms default to what's popular - which on educational platforms means beginner content. An expert sees elementary material three times and leaves. The personalization that retains power users actively repels newcomers. This is the fourth constraint in the sequence.